Imf World Economic Outlook Database October 2013
Macroeconomic outlook
The present Section contains projections and estimates of main macroeconomic indicators for Armenia, as well as other countries in the region and the global economy. Sources for projections and estimates are various: Government of Armenia, IMF, World Bank and other international organizations. It may also contain some estimates by independent agencies.
- Forecast of main macroeconomic indicators of Armenia
- Economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries
- Global economic growth forecasts
Table 1.1: RA Government's forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | ||
| Actual | Budget 2014 | MTEF 2015-2017 | ||||
| GDP | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -8.0 | -8.6 | -9.8 | -8.5 | -7.9 | -7.1 |
| Exports of goods | 8.6 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Imports of goods | 0.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
Abbreviations used:
Budget 2014- Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2014. Budget Law for 2014 was adopted on December 12, 2013;
MTEF 2015-2017 -Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia for 2015-2014, adopted on July 3, 2014.
Ô±Õ²ÕµÕ¸Ö‚Õ½Õ¡Õ¯ 1.2-2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||
| GDP | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 5.8 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -8.0 | -7.7 | -8.7 | -7.3 | -8.0 | -7.1 | -6.8 |
| Exports of goods | 8.6 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| Imports of goods | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.7 |
Source: IMF , World Economic Outlook Databases (Oct 2014); ADB , Asian Development Outlook (Sept 2014).
Table 1.2-1: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2014-2017, % change
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||
| GDP | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -8.0 | -7.2 | -8.7 | -6.8 | -8.0 | -6.6 | -6.5 |
| Exports of goods | 8.6 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 |
| Imports of goods | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
Source: IMF , World Economic Outlook Databases (April 2014); ADB , Asian Development Outlook (April 2014).
Table 2.1: RA Government's forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2013-2016,% change
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||
| Actual | Budget 2013 | MTEF 2014-2016 | MTEF 2014-2016 | Budget 2014 | MTEF 2014-2016 | MTEF 2014-2016 | |
| GDP | 7.2 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -11.2 | -9.2 | -9.5 | -8.0 | -8.6 | -6.3 | -4.3 |
| Exports of goods | 2.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 14.5 | 15.5 |
| Imports of goods | 2.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
Abbreviations used:
Budget 2014 - Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2014. Budget Law for 2014 was adopted on December 12, 2013;
MTEF 2014-2016 - Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia for 2014-2016, adopted on July 4, 2013;
Budget 2013 - Budget Message of the Government of Armenia for 2013. Budget Law for 2013 was adopted on December 5, 2012.
Table 2.2: IMF and ADB forecasts of Armenia's main macroeconomic indicators for 2013-2016, % change
| 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||||
| Actual | IMF | ADB | IMF | ADB | IMF | ||||
| Oct 2012 | Apr 2013 | Oct 2012 | Apr 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | Oct 2013 | ||
| GDP | 7.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Inflation, average consumer prices | 2.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Current account balance (% of GDP) | -11.2 | -9.3 | -9.6 | -9.8 | -9.8 | -8.6 | -9.6 | -7.6 | -7.2 |
| Exports of goods | 2.5 | 3.2 | 7.6 | na | 8.5 | 11.1 | na | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| Imports of goods | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 | na | 6.5 | 3.8 | na | 5.1 | 7.0 |
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Databases (October 2012, April 2013, October 2013); ADB, Asian Development Outlook (October 2012, April 2013, October 2013).
Table 3: IMF, ADB and RA Government's forecast of Armenia 's main macroeconomic indicators for 2012-2014 , %
| | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |||||
Actual | IMF | ADB | Budget | IMF | ADB | MTEF | IMF | MTEF | |
Economic growth | 4.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4 .2 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
Inflation (average) | 7.7 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
Current account balance/GDP | 11.0 | -11.0 | -11.2 | -9.8 | -9.5 | -10.0 | -8.9 | -8.4 | -7.5 |
Exports growth | 32.6 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 9.0 |
Imports growth | 14.3 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 |
Abbreviations used: IMF – international Monetary Fund, ADB – Asian Development Bank,
Budget – 2012 Budget Message of the Government of Armenia, MTEF - 2012-2014 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework of the Government of Armenia
IMF forecasts of economic growth in Armenia and in neighboring countries , %*
* 2011-actual
Global economic growth forecasts for 2012-2014 by IMF , %
Imf World Economic Outlook Database October 2013
Source: https://www.edrc.am/resources/useful-resources/macroeconomic-outlook